CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-09T12:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27655/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-12T05:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-11T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2023 Nov 10 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Decreasing C-class flare events kept solar activity barely at low levels this period. Region 3483 (N10W29, Dai/beta) and recently numbered Region 3484 (S12W26, Dai/Beta) were the only regions to exhibit growth during the period. Despite the growth and moderate magnetic complexity, only Region 3483 managed to produce any C-class flare activity. The remaining regions with spots were inactive and in decay. The halo CME mentioned in the previous discussion is expected to hit Earth mid to late day on 11 Nov (UTC). No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Geospace .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, over 10 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely, with a chance for G3 (Strong) levels, on 11-12 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 09 Nov. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2023 Nov 10 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only C-class flare activity observed this period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3477 (S15W39, Dac/beta), 3481 (N25W19, Bxo/beta), and 3483 (N09W23, Eai/beta), and the remaining regions with spots were either stable or in decay. The most notable event of the period was an eruption centered near S15W15 at around 09/1115 UTC. The associated halo CME is expected to hit Earth in the afternoon (UTC) of 11 Nov. Geospace .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled over 10 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 11-12 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 09 Nov.Lead Time: 58.40 hour(s)
Difference: 11.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2023-11-09T19:06Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement